Three years ago this week, Ben Stokes was appointed England’s Test captain. A fortnight later, Brendon McCullum joined as the team’s head coach. They had little or no previous experience in their roles. Perhaps this contributed to the adventurousness with which they have approached things ever since.
Almost half of the players brought into the side on their watch have themselves been tyros, with fewer than 25 first-class appearances to their names at the time of selection. Some such as Rehan Ahmed and Shoaib Bashir had barely played at all.
More such picks could be on the way. Sonny Baker, the exciting young Hampshire fast bowler, has played only two County Championship games but is under discussion for the Zimbabwe Test in late May and is on the radar for the winter’s Ashes tour. Ben McKinney, the Durham opener, is exciting the right people.
Hardly surprisingly, there is a widespread suspicion that gut instinct has replaced the traditional currencies of runs and wickets. Stokes saw some clips of Bashir bowling for Somerset and liked the look of him. Josh Hull was picked last summer chiefly because he was a tall left-armer; his championship record was 11 wickets at 84.54 apiece.
Jacob Bethell was selected to bat No3 in England’s most recent series in New Zealand having never scored a first-class century, but made a sufficiently good impression that possibly only his absence at the IPL will keep Ollie Pope in the side against Zimbabwe. Bethell has so far been warming the bench for Royal Challengers Bangalore but there are no plans for him to return before the end of the tournament.
England’s approach to selection, which is finalised by Rob Key, the director of cricket, in conjunction with Stokes and McCullum, leaves some judges baffled, both because of the in-form players that are overlooked and the out-of-form players with whom faith is kept.
In reality there is more method and science behind many of the decisions taken by Key’s panel than is generally apparent. The ECB’s data analytics department is regarded as cutting-edge, benefiting from a range of tools including the iHawk system, introduced in 2023, which tracks every ball bowled in senior domestic cricket. No other country has this.
Analytics help to identify players who will be scrutinised by England scouts and full-time selector Luke Wright in advance of selection, but crucially the credentials of these players will only be put before captain and coach if they are considered appropriate for the assignment in question. Stafford Murray, the ECB’s head of analytics, calls it “amplifying the philosophy already in the dressing room”.
One of the most consequential, if not controversial, aspects of the analytical tools used by England is “impact data”, which attempts to measure the effect performances have on overall outcome. In other words, even if a player’s contribution was not numerically eye-catching, did it help win the game?
If Zak Crawley retains his place as opener, as he is expected to do despite scoring only 52 runs in six innings in New Zealand, it may well be best explained by “impact data”. Crawley has, in the past, contributed meaningfully to a number of Test victories. Also, some of his best performances have come against India and Australia, England’s principal opponents this year.
His most recent score in county cricket, an unbeaten 54 spanning almost three hours, came as Kent lost six wickets battling to secure a draw against Gloucestershire — an effort worth far more to his side than the number of runs suggested.
In fact, a sure sign that analytics have played a part in England’s thinking is precisely because they have made so many left-field picks. Data analysis strips out sentiment, ignores the human instinct for caution, and simply presents facts — and if those facts resonate with the people surveying them, they will win the argument.
Hence, Bashir and Tom Hartley being picked for the Test tour of India early last year. Both were tall and had high release points (2.35 metres in each case) which evidence suggested was important in Indian conditions.
Similarly, Josh Tongue owed his initial selection in 2023 to his ability to maintain pace throughout three spells a day, a requirement that found many county bowlers wanting. Fit again after missing last season through injury, Tongue looks sure of a recall. “Our medical team have done some brilliant work with him,” Key said of Tongue. “He’s changed his shape. He’s become fitter, stronger.” He added that Tongue’s recent spell for Nottinghamshire against Durham was “bloody exciting”.
Since England started applying more science to selection in 2018 they have tended to pick much younger and much less experienced players than before.
There have been tensions. England’s planning for Australia began in early 2024 and directly led to Jimmy Anderson being forced into retirement on the basis that Australia was a trip too far for someone who would be 43 years old. Murray also let it be known that some selections “might look a bit weird, [but] it’s with the 2025-26 Ashes in mind”.
If McCullum supported Anderson’s removal, he was thought to be less keen on anything too experimental. If he was going to support his players, they needed to be selected on merit.
Ironically, given Anderson’s treatment, England’s view as to what is required to win in Australia has undergone a subtle change. Whereas 18 months ago they seemed convinced that the seam attack had to consist of bowlers operating at 86-90mph and above, they now accept that what is necessary is, in Key’s words, an attack to cover all bases.
Australian pitches in recent seasons have been greener, encouraging seam movement of the sort that has enabled Scott Boland — hardly a tearaway quick — to flourish, while spin has been less influential. Wright recently said that Sam Cook and Chris Woakes “are going to be massive going into Australia”. They are Anderson’s speed.
Cook’s likely debut against Zimbabwe owes much to multiple absentees — Mark Wood, Olly Stone and Brydon Carse are all injured and Woakes is struggling to shake off an ankle injury, while Jofra Archer is at the IPL — but is deserved on the back of a long record of success in county cricket with Essex. He would be essentially an old-school pick.
No one else in the past three years has debuted for England with so much first-class cricket behind them (Cook has played 88 games), but at 27 he is still young and capable of playing for England for many years, should he prove good enough. He nips the ball off the seam, gets good bounce although he is not especially tall at 6ft 1in, and has good control.
Baker is a similar height, and slight in stature, but commands genuine pace. He has the ability to swing the ball and, according to the Hampshire director of cricket Giles White, “has turned quite a few heads in a short space of time”.
It is just possible that England could select five seamers in their Test squad all aged under 28 in Gus Atkinson, Tongue, Cook, Matthew Potts and Baker. It would be very unusual if that were the case, but very much a group in the Stokes-McCullum mould.
England’s upcoming Tests
Trent Bridge, May 22-25
Headingley, June 20-24
Edgbaston, July 2-6
Lord’s, July 10-14
Old Trafford, July 23-27
Oval, July 31-Aug 4
Perth, November 21-25
Brisbane, December 4-8
Adelaide, December 17-21
Melbourne, December 25-29
Sydney, January 3-7
