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Republicans in Florida's 2026 gubernatorial race have carved out an early, yet narrow lead as Democrats plot a comeback in the conservative-trending Sunshine State.
Why It Matters
Florida, once the nation's premier battleground, shifted toward Republicans in recent elections with President Donald Trump carrying it by 13 points against former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. The state has become a bastion of conservative leadership over the past decade, but Democrats are hoping to make it competitive in the midterms, particularly if Trump's falling approval rating drags down Republicans next year.
What to Know
A new poll from the James Madison Institute, which surveyed 1,200 registered Florida voters from May 5 to May 7, showed potential candidate Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava, a Democrat who has not formally said she is running, trailing Republicans by a single-digit margin.
The poll shows the race could end up being closer than last year's presidential contest.
Representative Byron Donalds, who is running and was endorsed by Trump, led Levine Cava by four points in a hypothetical matchup (38 percent to 34 percent), with State Senator Jason Pizzo, who last month left the Democratic Party, winning five percent support. Twenty-three percent were still undecided.
Florida first lady Casey DeSantis, who hasn't said she plans to run, led Levine Cava by four points as well (39 percent to 35 percent). In that scenario, Pizzo won support from eight percent of respondents, while 18 percent were still undecided.
Newsweek reached out to Donalds' campaign, Governor Ron DeSantis' office and the Florida Democratic Party for comment via email on Friday.
In the Republican primary, 29 percent said they would be inclined to vote for Casey DeSantis, while 28 percent leaned toward Donalds. Ten percent said they'd vote for former Representative Matt Gaetz, seven percent said they'd vote for former Lieutenant governor Janette Nunez and five percent leaned toward Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, though none of them have confirmed they are running.
After learning about Trump's endorsement, Republicans were more likely to back Donalds over DeSantis (44 percent to 25 percent), according to the poll.
On the Democratic side, Levine Cava held a lead with 32 percent. Former Representative Gwen Graham followed with 13 percent, while former Representative David Jolly received 10 percent support and former State Senator Lauren Book received 7 percent.
The margin of error for the poll was plus or minus 2.77 percentage points.
Another recent survey found that a plurality of Floridians is not happy with the Trump administration. The Civiqs poll shows Trump's net approval rating in Florida was -1 point on May 7, with 48 percent approving of the job he is doing and 49 percent disapproving.
How Competitive Will Florida Be in 2026? Experts Weigh In
How competitive Florida will be in the midterms depends on whether the Florida Democratic Party is able to recalibrate itself after years of losses, J. Edwin Benton, a professor of political science and public administration at the University of South Florida, told Newsweek.
The Republican Party in Florida remains fractured as Governor Ron DeSantis remains at odds with legislative leaders, he told Newsweek. But Democrats have alienated more moderate former voters, and they could win some of those voters back by talking about the environment and housing, he said.
"The Democratic Party could make it interesting, if, and that's a very big if, it can get its act together, which they haven't beeen able to do for the last four, five, six years," the professor said. "But the opportunity is there, if nothing more than the pushback against DeSantis and Trump."
Levine Cava, if she chooses to run, could be a viable candidate for Democrats as she has high name recognition in Miami and among the Cuban-American population, which leans Republican but was a bit more competitive in 2016 and 2020.
Kevin Wagner, political science professor at Florida Atlantic University, told Newsweek shifting national headwinds could "make things a little more volatile" for the midterms in Florida.
"Midterms do tend to favor the party that does not hold the presidency. But, at this stage, the state Democrats probably have to think about rebuilding over multiple electoral cycles. They need to recruit and develop a larger group of potential candidates and build a better ground game with a more effective message. That's not likely to be fixed in one election," he said.
Democrats have struggled with enthusiasm, while Republicans have generated turnout, he said. Demographic trends, including the influx of new residents moving toward the GOP, have benefited the party as well.
What People Are Saying
Donalds on CBN News, according to Florida Politics: "I have the support of President Donald Trump. I have the support of [Florida's GOP] Senator Rick Scott. I have the support of most of the Republican congressional delegation. And we're picking up steam every single day. I've been crisscrossing the state nonstop for the last six weeks, except when I'm here doing my job here in Washington."
Casey DeSantis on whether she'll run for governor, in remarks reported by the Florida Phoenix: "We'll see."
What Happens Next
The gubernatorial field remains unclear, with potentially major candidates on both sides yet to declare. Fundraising, endorsements and shifting voter sentiment will likely define the race in the months ahead as Democrats hope to rebuild their brand in the Sunshine State.
Update 5/9/2025 2:04 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
About the writer
Andrew Stanton is a Newsweek weekend reporter based in Maine. His role is reporting on U.S. politics and social issues. ... Read more