Padres series preview: Which Royals lineup will show up?

The roller coaster Royals travel to sunny San Diego with fans uncertain of which team will show up - the limp lineup that went winless in the last homestand, or the home run-hitters that bashed their way to a sweep in Texas?

Facing them is a Padres team that has made a lot of big moves recently to try to win the first title in club history. This year, they got off to an amazing start, winning their first seven games and starting the year 14-3. But they’ve been slumping lately, dropping six of their last eight, and they have won just one series this month.

Kansas City Royals (37-38) vs. San Diego Padres (40-34) at Petco Park, San Diego, CA

Royals: 3.37 runs scored/game (29th in MLB), 3.60 runs allowed/game (4th)

Padres: 4.22 runs scored/game (18th), 3.93 runs allowed/game (10th)

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Only three teams have hit fewer home runs than the Padres. They have the third-lowest strikeout rate and the fourth-highest contact rate. Luis Arraez has struck out just five times all year for an absurdly low 1.7 percent strikeout rate, best in baseball. He also has the ninth-lowest walk rate and hits the ball to the opposite field 39 percent of the time, second-most in baseball. Manny Machado is hitting .286/.356/.597 against lefties.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is hitting .297/.372/.512 against righties and has a 52.9 percent groundball rate, seventh-highest in baseball. Utility player Jose Iglesias is hitting .315/.393/.389 at Petco Park this year. Jake Cronenworth is hitting .289/.400/.500 with runners in scoring position. Xander Bogaerts enjoyed a four-hit day yesterday with a home run, but has struggled overall this year and was hitting just .171 over his previous 15 games.

The Padres are an average defensive team overall with Tatis playing Gold Glove-quality defense in the outfield. Luis Arraez is a liability at first and Jake Cronenworth has not played well at second. Former Royals catcher Martín Maldonado has thrown out just 13 percent of base-stealers and has negative pitch-framing and pitch-blocking metrics. The Padres have 55 steals with an 80 percent success rate, but have made the third-most outs on the bases.

The Padres are without young outfield star Jackson Merrill after he suffered a concussion last weekend. Tatis was hit in the hand with a pitch yesterday that resulted in a bench-clearing incident. He will undergo further tests today.

Nick Pivetta tied for his longest outing of the year in his last start, going seven innings with nine strikeouts and just two runs allowed in a win over the Diamondbacks. He hasn’t lost a game since May 11. Pivetta has a sweeper that opponents are hitting just .130 against with a 37.7 percent whiff rate. Despite a strong sweeper, he has a reverse split this year, with lefties hitting just .199/.263/.288 against him. Pivetta has been much better at home than on the road with a 2.40 ERA at Petco Park. He also has the fourth-highest flyball rate at 48 percent.

Dylan Cease has the tenth-highest ERA among qualified starters, but is second in baseball in underperformance of his ERA compared to his FIP. He has the seventh-best strikeout rate in baseball, whiffing 30.3 percent of opponents. He relies heavily on a slider that yields a 41.5 percent whiff rate, throwing the pitch almost half the time, adding in a 97 mph fastball. Salvador Perez is hitting just .235/.243/.353 against him in his career with one home run in 34 at-bats.

Randy Vásquez has given up more than three runs in a start just twice in 15 outings, but he hasn’t gone more than five innings in a start all month. He has the second-worst strikeout-to-walk ratio among starters. Vásquez has a deep arsenal, throwing a cutter, 93 mph four-seamer, sweeper, curve, sinker, and occasional change up. Lefties are batting .265/.380/.470 against him this year.

The Padres bullpen has a 3.29 ERA, sixth-best in baseball, with the sixth-highest strikeout rate. Closer Robert Suarez leads the National League with 21 saves, but he has blown two opportunities this year. In his last three outings he has given up seven runs and retired just three of the eleven batters he faced. Former Royals pitcher Jason Adam allows contact just 67 percent of the time, 13th-lowest among relievers. Wandy Peralta has a 58.8 percent groundball rate, 11th-highest among relievers. Adrián Morejón hasn’t given up an earned run over his last 14 outings.

The Padres took two of three from the Royals last year in Kansas City, but the Royals won the series the last time it was in San Diego, back in 2023. The Padres have a really solid club that could be a contender this fall, so the Royals will have to hope they discovered a key to unlock the offense in Texas to continue this successful road trip.